I received a speaking invitation the other day that sounded suspiciously like I was being set up to be the lone Luddite on a high-tech panel discussing the impact of technology on the travel industry.
"You have this reputation," my caller began, "for being anti-technology. I understand that you speak to groups arguing that the consumer is better served by using consultants rather than travel agents because consultants don't sell travel from a GDS. We'll have several travel tech gurus on the panel, so you would be a great counterpoint. We might bill you as the 'anti-tech crusader.'"
My automatic response was to tell her that I thought it was a wonderful idea but that I would first like to design a suitable superhero costume. When I felt I was ready, I would call her back. Perhaps my costume could feature a cartoon across my chest showing me riding a beautiful white horse while thrusting a golden sword through the innards of a GDS.
If I am coming across in this space as anti-technology, I had better set the record straight.
There are two adults and one 8-year-old in the Turen home. At the moment, we own and regularly use three fully loaded desktop PCs. We have an iPod and two iPhones. We have a Mac laptop as well as a PC laptop. We have an iPad and a iPad Mini. We have three modems in the house, several fully equipped offices, WiFi and direct links to travel partners worldwide.
And that is just our house. I am connected to my office in my car via Bluetooth, enabling me to talk to clients through the vehicle's audio system. We connect to our office remotely, and we have a staff of tech advisers who help us maintain and expand our use of technology.
I find it necessary to subscribe to all of the important consumer computer magazines, and I read technology news summaries every morning before work. I suppose you could say that one of my self-imposed intellectual challenges is to try to know as much as I can about how our use of technology will change the way travel is sold and marketed in the next decade or two.
That does not mean I would ever claim to be knowledgeable in this area. When I learn new stuff, I want to share it with you. But mostly what I learn is how little I will ever understand about the tidal wave of new technology in which the travel professional is forced to tread water.
So, no, I am not anti-technology. Anyone in travel who is against technology ought to open a needlepoint shop or become a blacksmith. It is never about whether we should use technology; it is all about how we ought to best use it to serve our clients in truly meaningful ways.
I am of a generation that was raised to believe that if you really want to understand something complex, it is best to "follow the money." But I think we live in a new age in which the mantra might more accurately be "follow the big data." The GDS (or some future iteration of its technology) will remain an important tool as long as it serves the needs of big data. Power and wealth will, in the future, fall to those who own the most data.
Initially, collecting and sorting available data about our transactions and our clients was essentially a storage problem. Very quickly, solutions were designed, and the big-data super collectors learned how to handle petabytes of storage.
So we have access to data and facts, and the big-data power players have now turned to analyzing that data and putting it in formats that have become essential to any business. Eventually, they will make us pay heavily for its use.
The raw numbers are interesting. According to Jupiter Research, the online travel agency sites did about $130 billion worth of business in 2011. This was about 38% of total travel sales. The agent's share of bookings has dropped most sharply in the big three "grocery store" travel commodities, the bread, butter and milk of our industry: airfare, hotels and car rentals.
But as we adapt and learn more about technology, the overriding impression has to be that we are just now learning to crawl. The banking system will be changed, computers will be worn on your wrist, over your eyes and, eventually, implanted who knows where. Our clients will have full access wherever they are.
That is actually an important concept. Our clients will have access to everything they might need in real time as they travel the world. This could make an itinerary set in stone a remnant from the dark ages. I can see a generation that values the coolness of making up travel plans as they move about the globe. So the very notion of advance planning might not, in the future, mean what it means today.
Big data also means that information about the client will be readily available. Might this mean that some clients will be viewed as more appropriate hotel guests than others? Will bloggers, for example, get booking priority over non-bloggers? In fact, some hotels are already taking note of this predilection.
Right now, the hope is that while technology keeps getting better and new apps can do new things, our clients will have more choices, and no travel agent will be able to match the variety of experiences available to the online travel consumer.
But we are already seeing a parallel phenomenon. There is some good data suggesting that large portions of the "Internet travel undecided" have already reached the point where they feel that the choices are too daunting. There is too much information out there. And with all that is out there, they can't seem to get an answer to their central question: "Given my specific needs, personality and background, as well as my goals for this vacation, should I be choosing Brand A, B or C. And if I do, what are the downsides of my choice?"
That is where websites fail them, and that is why they are still using human beings who have been there, instead of computers that have not.
Contributing Editor Richard Bruce Turen owns Churchill & Turen Ltd., a luxury vacation firm based in Naples, Fla. He is also managing director of the Churchill Group, a sales training and marketing consultancy. Contact him at rturen@travelweekly.com.