The human brain stops growing somewhere near our 18th birthday. After that, we average about 70,000 thoughts per day. That would mean I am far below average.
Despite this, I have always believed that anyone fortunate enough to have a platform to air their opinions publicly ought to go on record once a year to state some core beliefs and biases. Since this is my final column this year, I thought it might be appropriate to share some random thoughts on a wide range of industry issues.
• Step back and peer down at this industry, and you will see that the sparkling diamonds are independent contractors who carry a minimum of $1 million in annual bookings. The firms that take the best care of these "diamonds" while providing the highest levels of support will be the ultimate endgame winners.
• When I started in this business, people came to me because I knew more stuff than the other agents they had used. Travel agents had knowledge. Now, Google has all the knowledge. It knows just about everything. Our role as consultants has shifted dramatically. Our job now is to teach people how best to use and apply the travel information that is at their fingertips.
• Of course, travel agents will eventually disappear. Corporations do not pay out commissions if they can operate a successful direct-to-consumer model for less. But the part of the story that's generally not recognized is that agents will reappear as another life form. Hidden among the Department of Labor's list of those job titles that will have the greatest shortages in the coming decade is something called "Leisure Time Planner." I leave it to the travel industry millennials to figure out what that term means.
• UBS Bank expects that in just five years, China will have more billionaires than the U.S. Total world household wealth is expected to grow by 50% in the next five years. Think some of those folks will be doing some traveling? The gates to entry can be challenging, but there is no reason that one should limit marketing to the U.S. in this new global economy.
• I've never liked the term "travel agent." It is almost a slave name, because it harks back to the day when we were plate-dependent "agents of the airlines." We used the term to connote that in our store "we do everything -- equally well." That is, of course, historical nonsense. Current travel agents ought to be thinking about exactly how they will rebrand themselves with a title the consumer can both understand and respect. If you can't coherently explain what sets you apart from travel agents, you are to travel what Applebee's is to fine dining.
• There are no five-star-service river cruise ships in Europe. Given the logistical challenges, I'm not sure there ever will be.
• Social media is overhyped, overused and represents a significant time drain. Too much social media comes off as begging for business. I think the generations that most support social media have short attention spans. Already, we're seeing signs that Facebook is no longer cool.
• Those considering entering our field need to be told that the odds of creating a successful travel startup are not much better than the odds of launching a new restaurant.
• It has always surprised me that suppliers have so little difficulty with sellers who demean and undervalue the worth of their products. Known rebaters ought to be inundated with calls from ethical agents to the point that it seriously disrupts their business.
On the other hand, we are all rebaters, despite our use of code words like "gift certificates" and "amenities."
• I understand why many suppliers do not respect travel sellers. When I was a supplier, my secretary had a folder filled with requests from agents requesting commission on their own reduced-rate travel. We do not dress like professionals, and we show no evidence of reading the Wall Street Journal. We are, as a rule, unable to articulate a cohesive business plan when we meet with suppliers. An industry will never be judged by the exceptions to the rule.
• I hope we have not seen the end of airline mergers. I think that Southwest and JetBlue need to merge. It would just be fun to watch.
• Our kids will probably end up working for a Chinese boss. They had better learn to speak Mandarin or at least be able to comprehend a Chinese accent. It should be impossible to graduate from high school without visiting both China and India.
• Right now, premium and luxury cruise lines probably pay out an average of somewhere near 15% commissions. You know how they think they can stop rebating? By simply capping their commissions at 10%. By the way, they're wrong. That won't stop rebating. There are plenty of online travel slingers currently working on 5% margins.
• Hotels seem further from realizing their full potential than any other industry sector. I have never understood why hotels don't set up their own in-house agencies for arriving guests in their city with strong loyalty benefits for their use. Most consumers want a quiet room and a properly sanitized room that is guaranteed to be free of bedbugs. Certified clean drinking glasses and TV remotes would also be nice. But no brand owns these concepts, and I just don't understand why.
• Tour operators need to offer two versions of every tour or they risk alienating large portions of their potential base. Line up upscale tour consumers, and you will find that 75% would prefer a contemporary lifestyle tour with food components to "your grandmother's traditional history tour." There is a new escorted-tour consumer out there, and few are reaching them.
• You can sell cruises that are priced "from" $499. But if you do, don't go to bed at night feeling that you're in any way superior to the salesman on a used-car lot. Phony, come-on pricing and bait-and-switch ought to be illegal, not just unethical.
• Any agency that does not aspire to join one of the several top-tier consortia likely has no aspirations at all.
• No professional group of consultants is more deserving of respect than the travel professional. On our shelves, we stock the world. We have to be conversationally familiar with the details of every continent. Ours is the only profession that deals exclusively with life's most treasured moments. We fill memory banks, we make life worth living, we bring families together, and we help our countrymen find a greater understanding of life beyond our borders. For these and all the other cherished reasons, we should take great pride in what we do.
• One guarantee for the travel new year: It will not be boring.
Contributing Editor Richard Bruce Turen owns Churchill & Turen Ltd., a luxury vacation firm based in Naples, Fla. He is also managing director of the Churchill Group, a sales training and marketing consultancy. Contact him at rturen@travelweekly.com.