Richard Turen
Count me among those who believe futurist Alvin Toffler's "Future Shock" to be one of the most important books of the 20th century. It ages some of us to realize that the book was published in 1970.
Toffler is credited with inventing futurism, and he got a surprising number of things right. The frontier of technology and the Internet were imagined, and the concept inspired Steve Case at AOL. Toffler, assisted by his wife, Heidi, predicted Prozac, the cult of instant celebrity, YouTube, cloning and a paralyzing mindset based on the mass of information, choices and concerns bombarding us nonstop.
I remember Toffler warning, "The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read or write but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn."
With that in mind, let me do a little free-thinking with you to see if we can put our collective finger on some of the trends that will shape our industry and the way we interact with our clients. Or, put another way, let's see how very much we will need to unlearn in the year ahead.
There is one clear trend that dominates all others. More and more of our clients, including boomers, will be using mobile smartphone technology to make and store travel arrangements. To encourage digital bookings, suppliers are poised to break the "even playing field" glass shield. We are about to witness the emergence of the ultimate reward for using mobile: significant discounts not available through other, older distribution channels.
Fox News quotes John Morrey of Expedia predicting exclusive mobile offers from vendors featuring discounts "anywhere from 20% to 40%." Finally we know which distribution source will reward users with better-than-direct pricing models.
We're in the midst of reworking the concept of the traditional travel agent. The new "consultant" will be someone who has knowledge not available on the Internet. The new breed will hope to become a trusted "adviser," much like a physician or lawyer. The "travel" in travel agent will evolve into something broader along the lines of a "leisure-time planner."
Leisure consultants will have to be up on worldwide security and safety. They will need to be able to recommend and book restaurants globally, and they will need to know the best guides and drivers personally. They will embrace technology and become travel-tech interpreters. In 2015, we will see more consultants taking on the role of "qualitative sifters," rummaging through the Internet for clients and demonstrating that it is, at its core, the single greatest source of travel misinformation.
Airports will begin to change in significant ways with the goal of making flying a more pleasant experience. There are many ways this can happen, but the main goal is the elimination of processes and procedures that fliers hate. The removal of airport check-in desks could be a first step. Fliers will, in the near future, check in for their flights at work, at home or at convenient kiosks.
Security screening, as we know it, will slowly disappear for most fliers, replaced by swipe-and-go ID cards and accurate biometric technology. A new "high-trust traveler" certification, with testing done by the feds, will allow frequent fliers to bypass security.
Most experts agree that checked baggage will eventually disappear. Airlines want to cut down on their weight and on the time fliers need to check in and collect their baggage. To fill the gap, passengers will be able to ship baggage they can't carry onboard using delivery services.
Virgin Cruises will help to redefine the cruise experience when it launches two new luxury cruise ships. The new company, with an infusion of cash from Bain Capital, will appeal to a younger demographic while looking to achieve a new kind of five-star experience. Richard Branson is not entering the cruise industry to replicate existing hardware and customer experience. Look for high-tech throughout with tablet-toting staff, condo-style accommodations and new takes on time in port.
Wearable connectivity will enable on-the-go techies to be their own travel agent while walking or driving, with mobile devices embedded in new clothing lines. Apple's iWatch will launch next year, and according to Euromonitor International, the number of wearable Internet-connected devices will reach 180 million by the end of 2015, placing real-time booking capability in the hands of users who won't need a smartphone or tablet to plan worldwide travel.
Look for tour companies to enhance their products by offering day segments with local or other experts who are not traditional guides. Times Journeys is a good example: Unique destinations combine traditional touring with insights from present and former New York Times reporters. Local architects add context on some A&K tours, and real estate experts will be a new trend in destinations that have active expat communities. Look for some of these new kinds of tour leaders to emerge from the ranks of local police, offering unique takes on the cities they protect.
Southern Africa will begin to emerge as a premier surfing destination with world-class beaches attracting what the International Surfing Association estimates are 35 million surfers worldwide. Savvy Europeans are heading to far-off destinations like Mozambique, with its righteous waves.
Airplanes will morph into social media hotbeds on long flights. The Here on Biz app used in conjunction with Gogo's in-flight WiFi network now enables fliers to check out fellow passengers' LinkedIn profiles to encourage conversations on select Virgin America flights. The ability to engage in a dialogue with fellow passengers is often cited by Virgin customers as a differentiator.
Semantic search technology, which enables online travel agencies to really understand what a traveler is seeking, will make great strides. Instead of pictures, the search engine can provide instant conversational feedback based on the user's profile and a psycho-demographic profile developed in real time.
Airlines, hotels and tour operators are determined to mine as much personal data about their present and potential guests as they can. Delta will give flight attendants handheld devices and provide cabin crews with personal data about each passenger. Emirates is doing the same in a bid to enhance personal service. Tour operators are using social media and pretrip questionnaires to create detailed profiles of their guests. On some itineraries, Trafalgar Holidays in Australia is giving guides client data and "passion points" so they can personalize small gifts for tour members.
Airlines will be taking delivery of new, slimmer seats in 2015. Maybe airlines have data suggesting Americans are getting thinner. Why else would Alaska, Southwest and United, for starters, be introducing new, thinner seats with reduced seat pitch, set for installation on their aircraft? United alone will be placing the new seats on more than 400 aircraft. The hope appears to be that passengers won't notice the smaller slimline seats because the new tray tables will also be smaller, keeping everything in proportion. I recommend that airline seating engineers be required to study the physical dimensions of their customers by patrolling the aisles at a nearby Wal-Mart.
Happy New Year to you and yours. The journey is much more interesting having you by my side.