Richard Turen
In 1991, futurist and trend-marketing guru Faith Popcorn published "The Popcorn Report," a book that opened the discussion of future trends to those who had never known there were academics and marketing types who dedicate their lives to predicting where our society is taking us.
I remember writing about some of what I had read in this important book in a piece for this publication in 1992. What struck me most about Popcorn's predictions -- she runs one of the most prominent futurism think tanks, one that is used by Fortune 500 firms -- was the notion that our children would be unlikely to travel as far or as often as their parents.
It will be too expensive, too time-consuming and too scary, Popcorn postulated, for the next generation to travel overseas because it will simply not seem necessary to actually go to a place when you can visit anywhere on Earth from the comfort of your home.
She talked about the lack of desire we would observe in the young to visit Rome. Why go through the hassle and the stressful flying experience, Popcorn wondered, when you will be able to strap on a virtual reality (VR) headset and safely walk around any neighborhood in Rome you choose, passing three-dimensional people, smelling food cooking and hearing street sounds. This, she seemed to believe, will be the way we travel in the future.
It was, of course, both a dark and, in many ways, inaccurate prediction. But only part of it is untrue. The strapping on of the headset to travel is just starting to occur, and we have no idea where it is taking us. But so far, we have not seen this trend negatively impacting our inbred desire to physically explore this planet we all share.
Popcorn and her "brain reserve" have gotten it right over the years more often than not. But I remember reading her first book and hearing her say that the worst investment anyone could make would be in a supermarket chain because the roads will become battlefields between the haves and have-nots in our society and venturing out for milk and eggs will be seen as foolhardy.
The news, she predicted, will feature constant alerts as to which major roads are currently secure enough for passage.
I thought about that prediction earlier this week when I headed out to Whole Foods with my car top down. But it hasn't come to pass. Instead of hiding in their rooms with a VR set, young people today are traveling farther and spending less. They are sharing rides and sharing homes across the globe. They are not fearful. They are curious. And I hope that is the future.
I've been interested in what is called futurism for much of my adult life. I still read Popcorn because she is right far more often than she is wrong. She invented the term "cocooning," and she predicted the demand for fresh foods and the entire home delivery boom.
I once had a mostly academic interest in the future of our industry, and I still burden you readers with my own trend observations from time to time. But I have an 11-year-old daughter who travels everywhere we go, and I do wonder what travel will be like when she has adult choices and options.
One night, she played soccer and scored a goal. It was thrilling. The crowd was screaming, and the stadium was alive with banners and chants. She played soccer again the next morning and scored two goals. But it was a more serene experience.
That's because the night game was in our home. She chose to join the Real Madrid team in a match against archrival Barcelona. In her room, she was able to bring the stadium to life with chants from the crowd, the sound of the announcer and panoramic views of the stadium. She chose which player she would become and became seriously involved in controlling her actions on the pitch.
The next morning, in contrast, she was in uniform with her team on an actual soccer field, using her foot instead of her fingers to score goals.
But which was the real soccer experience? Until you try out the soccer simulation video game FIFA 17, don't answer too quickly.
I wonder if we will see major changes in the way travel is perceived at its core in the future. Will the entire experience be redefined? Will virtual travel become actual travel?
If you walked the narrow, cobblestone streets of Trastevere, Rome's oldest neighborhood, last night, if you stopped to walk inside the Checco er Carettiere restaurant, walking past the hanging garlic and glancing at the walls with their photos of local celebrities in black and white and then virtually sat down at a table, are you actually visiting Rome?
If you are wearing a VR headset, then you haven't actually tasted their memorable version of Roman-style osso buco. And what of the huge ravioli en brodo?
You and I would surely say, "Of course not." You're either there or you're not. Virtual travel is not the same as physical travel. But that assumes a mindset about technology and its ability to create increasingly realistic digital simulations that could be changing. And we only need to look at some of the other major trends in our society to see how that is possible.
In its latest issue, Afar magazine identified a new trend its editors call "Hostel 2.0." It turns out that your clients can now book a room in Rome for $22 a night, Chicago for $25 and Reykjavik, Iceland, for $37. These are rooms in new-generation hostel hotels meant to be shared.
But these are not for backpackers or folks who wear granola feedbags around their necks. These are social places where private rooms, small and stylish, are also available. In Rome's Generator Hostel, featuring a lovely rooftop terrace, that room would set you back $83, $79 in Chicago's Freehand in the River North neighborhood.
There is something going on here because the Generator brand, with 12 properties already open in Europe, is appealing to a demographic that could define an important component of those Americans who travel in the future; the young, fit, stylish explorer who could care less about mainstream hotels with all their add-on profit centers, needless space and ridiculously high rates.
Generator knows what they want, so 300 lanterns hang on the ceiling of the bar in their Barcelona property, and its hostel in Amsterdam has a late-night speakeasy. The Oddsson Hostel in Reykjavik has some suites with views of the sea, a caviar-to-go menu and my favorite, a completely soundproof karaoke room in the middle of their fine dining room.
The place sits on the fourth floor of a warehouse, and no one told the local designers what they could and could not do. But this one is, as Afar reports, expensive: A room with a private bath will set you back $107.
Will this catch on? Will future hotels be influenced by converted storefronts becoming one-room luxury hotels with no employees and situated in the world's best neighborhoods? I've interviewed the man who pioneered this concept, and I think it has legs.
But that raises other questions. How do we justify five-star hotel rates to our clients? I like citing statistics about how often sheets and covers are changed and how a higher price most often assures a bedbug-free sleeping experience. I talk about evening security and the cost of knowing who is on premises at your hotel 24/7.
The futurists seem to feel that cocooning and our need for bigger and better homes has given way to "bunkering," a state of mind that will make our kids desire guarded homes, filtered water and life in a kind of bubble community where they will exchange privacy for the experience of living there with constant protection. And in that bubble they will coexist with their AI robotic assistants, entertaining themselves in an ever-growing realistic simulation of life.
Just how will the travel planner get our brochures inside that secure community? How will we get them to leave their bunkers? At least we have a clear view of the challenges ahead. The good news is that the challenges will outlive us all.