Richard Turen
When it comes to any discussion of futurism and its likely impact on segments of our industry, there are some current big picture trends worth noting.
The first is the growth of artificial intelligence (AI). If you're currently employed in the travel or hospitality industry, no matter your age, you will likely see some of the effects of the AI revolution. That is because the market seems to support products that use the latest technology, even if it creates things we don't necessarily need.
Travel brands are now working to make people's lives easier when they are not working, because people will be working less. The Faith Popcorn's Brainreserve people believe that salaries will become a thing of the past, and that everyone will achieve a minimum, satisfactory income.
That sounds insane unless you consider the incredible growth rate of automation and our growing wealth. We'll have more than enough money and not enough jobs, so people will be working far less. That would seem to indicate some real opportunities for leisure-oriented businesses.
If you want to get a sense of the impact of technology on our lives, consider that Bill Gates recently suggested we consider charging federal income taxes for every robot that replaces a human in the workplace at approximately the same hourly rate. Gates is advocating this because he believes that robots are replacing human workers at a pace that is greater than the pace of job creation.
Can we imagine our industry, essentially a counseling service industry, as being targeted for robotization? Of course we can. We're ripe for it. We are digital sitting ducks. In fact, it is already happening. There are some low-IQ robots that can be programmed with more destination information, updated hourly, than any travel consultant could ever acquire.
It could well be that the biggest challenge our industry will face in the future is the impact of AI and tremendous gains in the sophistication of virtual reality (VR). But, for me, this is all rather obvious. Of course, technology is developing at a pace so rapid that we may not be able to adapt to it intellectually or emotionally.
A few decades back, Alvin Toffler wrote a book titled "Future Shock," about our inability to process the current rate of change in our lives. But, to be truthful, have the lives of travel agents really changed all that much since the book was first published in 1970? Our GDS can do more, and there are some neat ways to book hotels online, but do we as an industry really represent, in any meaningful way, the adaptation of new technologies, including VR and AI?
Toffler thought there was a psychological impact on humans, especially those of us in travel, that can create a mental condition that is real and measurable. It also severely impacts our ability to keep up with a world that seems to be spinning ever faster as we try to stand up without losing traction on this planet we, the world's largest group of room/cabin-rental real estate agents, sell.
But on top of our abilities to create artificial entities that are smarter than humans and realities that are more detailed than our ability to describe them comes a third wave of change that I think may be really significant and potentially damaging to our more traditional business models.
Whether you call it "super cocooning," "bunkering" or, as I prefer, "fortressing," we are already seeing a growing trend of a desire to simply stay home and avoid the perceived dangers of travel abroad. A recent poll showed that 74% of Americans live in fear of ISIS, and some futurists describe the American public as largely "terrified." (Read part 1: "How will we travel in the future?")
Surely some of this is paranoia and hyperbole. But the growing fear of travel abroad seems to be intersecting with the growth of AI and the likely affordability of and access to enhanced VR. This will all combine to make the home a safer but also more interesting place to be where new forms of "travel" are possible.
The futurists seem convinced that more and more Americans wish to live in fortress communities with guardhouses, filtered water and on-site access to necessities. We already see that consumers want to stay at home more. They want their entertainment delivered by safe, underground cable. They want to dine at home, and they want a shelter that is both an entertainment venue and a secure, safe spot from which to view the world.
That, I think, is our major challenge going forward. The technology that makes this all desirable is already here.
How we reach potential clients is already changing. The old mailing list is an antiquity. We now have the capacity to know so much about our clients and potential clients that it has surpassed our ability to catalog the information. And one of the things we're learning about travelers is they fear being catfished, scammed and phished. They don't trust those who claim to know them well and wish to send them information. But they do trust certain brands.
One trusted brand is Stella Artois, a decent beer made in Belgium and then packaged at Beck's facilities in Germany for export to the U.S. The folks at Stella decided to get into the travel business by designing an app for travelers in Europe. It quickly directs the user to a dispensary for their products.
The company that makes Vespa motor scooters has designed a rolling robot that can be packed with whatever. It is on wheels and is circular, and it follows the user while walking or biking. The robot, Gita, has built-in cameras, plus a belt worn by its owner has a second set of cameras.
This allows for 3-D maps of its environment, providing accurate navigational assistance. The robot can easily be programmed to be a tour guide, as well. It follows the owner like a loyal puppy, but this puppy doesn't need to be fed or trained to use the facilities outside.
Most of us don't have brands. As we isolate ourselves in our home fortress, we may yearn for travel with others for no other reason than the joy of shared experiences.
Our kids and our adult clients are going to realize that conversation is becoming a dying art. Efforts will be made to revitalize it in the manner of the Tea with Strangers organization, which hosts simple conversational gatherings in major cities here and in Europe.
As we become more digitally isolated, we will seek out small groups for intimacy, trust and a sense of what used to be called conversation. But will we travel in search of conversation and interaction?
The best travel marketers will see these new, intimate groups, seeking human interaction, as wonderful sources of travel and exploration in the future.
They will be the vanguard of those who say they have had enough with the digital world. We may hope that they will all share the same goal: finding a trusted adviser to help them explore the world in person in an environment of safety and comfort.
But it will be up to us, with just a little help from new technologies, to convince increasing numbers of fortress dwellers that the rewards of worldwide travel far exceed the risks of stepping outside oneself.