Richard Turen
Since we, of necessity, follow speculation about new aircraft and services aboard existing planes, we are often subject to the mythology of future aircraft design along with changes in the way we experience flight. The consumer media is filled with speculation about new, exciting changes in the way we will flit about our planet in the future.
So, today, feet planted firmly on the tarmac, I thought it might be worthwhile to look at and analyze some of the myths, rumors and genuine breakthroughs that have made their way into the media recently.
Before we look at specific proposals, it's important to recognize that a fair share of these new ideas originate from the mind of Michael O'Leary, the CEO of Ryanair. It is easy to dismiss O'Leary as an industry eccentric, prone to seemingly outrageous public statements. He was once asked at a press conference what would be different about the transatlantic service he was considering between the East Coast of the U.S. and Ireland, and he responded "whores and rum."
In order to work faster, he applied for a taxi medallion for the roof of his Mercedes so he could use the bus lanes in and around Dublin. He got it.
O'Leary made one crucial decision when he was starting out, deciding that the only business model in the industry worth studying was that of Southwest. Today, Ryanair is Europe's largest airline, the largest low-cost carrier and one of the world's largest airlines as measured by international passengers carried. I would caution against dismissing his musings outright.
It's worth noting that he once said, "The other airlines are asking how they can put up fares. We are asking how we could get rid of them."
Here are a few proposals, predictions and pure myths recently floated in the popular media:
There will be hefty charges for printing a boarding pass at the gate. We're already there. Both Spirit Airlines and Ryanair already charge for this, with more to follow.
Legroom will be reduced on many aircraft. Boeing is developing a higher-density version of the 737 called the "MAX," with a seat pitch of 29 inches, vs. the 31-inch norm for this aircraft, so let's call this one highly likely.
Planes are being designed for standing-room-only flights. This one has been around awhile, has been debunked and now is getting some serious consideration. Airbus has patented a design for standing-room seats that resemble bicycle seats on a sturdy pole, reportedly aiming at specially configured models of the A380 on shorter flights.
In a piece on his Airfarewatchdog.com website, travel journalist George Hobica posits that the vast majority of outrageous airline design patents will never see light. But this idea might make the cut, because with standing-room-only passengers, a large plane could have more exits and could be evacuated much more quickly, since everyone is essentially already standing in the aisles.
Gambling and adult entertainment will be available at your seat. Polling shows this would be a popular feature, with participation limited to mobile devices. Given the current approval ratings for the concept, coupled with the ability of technology to make it happen, I'd have to guess that this idea will be implemented somewhere soon.
The days of the cylindrical aircraft are over. Airbus has applied for a patent for a circular aircraft, which the Financial Times dubbed "the flying doughnut." Current aircraft design requires pressurization that stresses the plane at the front and back ends. Think of passengers as sausage stuffing and the aircraft as the sausage casing. The Airbus design calls for circular seating, distributing pressure in the craft evenly and creating a more efficient plane. Airbus has speculated that the circular design would allow for more passengers than current aircraft models.
Keep in mind, however, that in an average year, Airbus applies for between 600 and 700 patents.
All but one emergency toilet will be removed from short-range jets. Aircraft designers tell us that the removal of rear toilets and food service areas could add 14 to 18 standard seats. But when O'Leary floated this idea, it met with a resounding "He can't be serious!" along with, "What if we're flying home from a Manchester United match, and we've consumed more than one beer prior to boarding?"
To add to the controversy, O'Leary proposed charging one euro to enter the single remaining restroom.
Jet aircraft will be flown by a single pilot. Given that technology breakthroughs have rendered some human navigation redundant, it has been suggested that some shorter flights could be operated by one pilot, with a flight attendant trained to land a plane in an emergency.
I can't find any reputable industry source who thinks this will ever occur, nor does there appear to be any public support for the idea.
Planes will give branded gifts to premium passengers and hang real art in the cabins. In-flight branding remains limited, though partnership opportunities seem to be growing. Who says a U.S. carrier can't forge an association with Tumi or Tiffany to provide meaningful onboard gifts to certain classes of passenger? The sterile walls of airplane cabins could also serve as venues for small art displays, with corporate sponsors competing to "adopt" aircraft to beautify. I think this one is likely to happen, following the lead of several of the better Middle Eastern carriers.
Google Glass-wearing passengers will be able to float rather than squirm through airports as security is sent signals and sensors handle luggage arrangements in advance. Virgin Atlantic, clearly the most tech-savvy airline, has been testing Google Glass at Heathrow for 11 months. But much of what we read about this new technology is already outdated. While Google Glass has not been a strong consumer favorite, the consensus seems to be that it has upside potential for airport workers at all levels.
Look for several things to happen before we all go out and buy this technology to speed us through the airport. The glasses will have to be re-engineered to be nearly unbreakable and more tight fitting. At least one major airline will need to create shortcuts and adaptive usage that permeates the airport and boarding experiences.
But this kind of technology adapts quickly once needs are identified. Look for the Google Glass wearable computing concept to reappear in another form within 24 months.
No major U.S. carrier can overcome its awful customer service image when compared with foreign carriers. During the past two decades, the industry take seemed to be that U.S. carriers would do well to survive reorganization following bankruptcy. Having a leading-edge reputation for customer service was always thought to be an impossible dream.
But it would only be necessary for one legacy carrier to break ahead of the herd, sending a signal that U.S. airlines have the means and even the will to succeed. It seems to me that Delta is currently in a position to be that leader.
Delta has been winning business traveler quality polls at a stunning level of consistency in the past several years. That one carrier can so quickly turn around its image in the minds of its customers tells me that the days when Middle Eastern and Asian airlines dominated customer service ratings might in the next decade be reversed.