"Nobody comes here anymore, it's too crowded" -- Yogi Berra
This week, I'd like to continue our discussion of trends and predictions. (Read part 1 here.) I hope you'll agree that some of these trends will ultimately play a role in new travel landscapes as we evolve from agents to leisure-time planners:
• The next wave of smartphone and tablet users may be hesitant to book online: Hidden in all the excitement about tablet and smartphone sales at the expense of the hapless computer and land-line phone is the idea that not all adopters of technology are the same. Early adopters have already bought their iPhones and their tablets. However, we're now in the throes of late adopters who want to feel connected but who, initially, took a wait-and-see stance. Not all technology purchasers are eager to book itineraries, airline tickets or hotel rooms online. This could mean that this second and third wave of smart technology purchasers will be more likely to use a call center after researching online.
• The Far East will become a favorite destination for the five-star cruise fleet: With ships being pulled from Europe in 2014, flat sales in the Caribbean and an inability to expand business in Alaska, upscale cruise lines will be focusing more on exotic sailings to Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar. Azamara, Silversea, Crystal and SeaDream are already testing these waters. There are excellent opportunities for growth for river cruising, with Aqua Expeditions, Orient Express, Uniworld and AmaWaterways making commitments in the area. Viking may announce it is purchasing Indonesia. Given air costs and flying time, knowing where to source sea and river cruise customers for programs in the Far East will be a major, ongoing challenge.
• The digital traveler will be most concerned about experiences and less about traditional luxury: Agents had better know how to create exceptional moments because the new breed of connected traveler expects more than one "magical moment" per trip. Agencies might have to employ a digital detective to search out experiences unique to their guests. It isn't going to be sufficient to recommend the best restaurant in Helsinki, Finland. Digital travelers want to work with an agent who can connect them to the latest pop-up restaurant situated in a limestone mine in the town of Lohja.
• Tech-savvy travelers will be questioning their core hotel values: The hallmarks of a proper vacation -- concierge services, a helpful check-in desk and a hotel room with amenities -- will be turned upside down by travelers who think much of what passes for an $800-per-night hotel stay is "silly." Airbnb.com has tapped into a trend that has gone viral: Online travelers book rooms in private homes, apartments or even aboard moored yachts. The hosts can be contacted directly, users can check out past reviews and booking is extremely simple. Bookings are available in more than 30 cities, and rates are almost always less than $100 per night. Airbnb has an active social component, so guests feel they have access to accurate reviews. Airbnb users tend to think hotel rooms are for the unadventurous, i.e., their parents.
• Pop-ups will pop up with increasing frequency: The advantage of a pop-up restaurant or hotel is that it is unlikely your social circle has experienced it. Pop-up restaurants are all the rage in major cities, but pop-up hotels, built to last just a few days in prime locations, are more than a passing fad. In England, Pop-Up Hotel and Snoozebox are already devoted to this concept.
• Major travel companies will co-brand travel apps: The big industry players will not sit idly by while do-it-yourself booking apps and vacation guides erode business. Look for new business models to develop resulting in co-branding apps such as WiFi Finder or the iFlyAirport Guide. If co-branding deals include shared data, that will increase the value of the app.
• The next five years will see major steps in wandering-abroad notification tools: Well-versed digital travel agents will be accompanying travelers on journeys abroad with increasing frequency and sophistication. Google Field Trip is the first step. It notifies the traveler when they wander near a place of interest, be it a shop, a restaurant or some often-missed local history. The database currently draws from sites like Zagat and Arcadia. It's hard to see how any travel professional will be able to match the updated information available to the smartphone-equipped traveler who needs to simply turn on an app for a true sense of a neighborhood. Look for sound and even smell technology to become part of the overall experience so walks can be saved and savored again.
• Guests will insist on taking the tour/cruise before placing a deposit: In the not-too-distant future, virtual reality will enable those with the greatest tech arsenal to prepare in-depth touring experiences, taking potential guests on a tour in accelerated time from the comfort of one's living room. As this technology develops, clients will become trained to insist on experiencing their travels in full, on a day-by-day basis before placing a deposit. In anticipation of this trend, some savvy tour firms are already working on high-def filming of entire tour itineraries, which guests will be able to stream to their smartphones. Will retailers find a way to serve this type of client?
• Luxury will be down-priced by the best purveyors: In the next five years, we're going to see a strong downward trend in the pricing of ultraluxury travel packaging. In our new-values economy, spending more does not automatically earn bragging rights, and savers will want two excellent trips instead of one once-in-a lifetime experience.
Spreading the demographic base is clearly the goal at such companies as Cox & Kings and Abercrombie & Kent. Butterfield & Robinson's new Bistro Collection is one example of this rapidly emerging trend. Instead of Relais & Chateau-type accommodations, guests are housed in comfortable family-run inns, but the programs otherwise remain much the same. Abercrombie & Kent's new Connections offerings are escorted tours with fewer inclusive components -- first-class rather than deluxe hotels, and larger group size.
It may well be that, eventually, small-group luxury departures are just a small part of an operator's product.
Contributing Editor Richard Bruce Turen owns Churchill & Turen Ltd., a luxury vacation firm based in Naples, Fla. He is also managing director of the Churchill Group, a sales training and marketing consultancy. He has been named to the list of the World's Top Travel Specialists by the editors of Conde Nast Traveler for the past 13 years. Contact him at rturen@travelweekly.com.