Experts from both the aviation and computer science sectors
expressed serious doubts last week about whether a new ban on carry-on
electronics instituted by the U.S. and U.K. for inbound flights from certain
Middle Eastern and North African countries would actually increase security.
Meanwhile, travel industry lobbying groups expressed their
own concerns about the prohibition, which both countries said would remain in
place indefinitely.
U.S. Travel Association executive vice president of public
affairs Jonathan Grella responded to the ban with a statement that said, in
part, "We continue to hope that highly visible changes to security
protocols in the future will be accompanied by a clear message that the
government's intent is not to suppress but to secure travel and that legitimate
international business and leisure travelers remain welcomed and valued by the
United States."
The U.S. directive, which was issued March 21 and was to go
into effect on March 25, requires flyers traveling to the U.S. from Egypt,
Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar and the United Arab
Emirates to check electronics, including computers, tablets, e-readers, cameras
and portable DVD devices. Travelers can still take cellphones with them on the
plane.
The U.K. prohibition, issued just hours after the U.S. rule,
applies to flyers from Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Saudi
Arabia. It bans those travelers from bringing computers, tablets and e-readers
onboard as carry-ons.
Both countries cited ongoing but unspecified terrorist
threats to commercial aviation as the reason for the new policy. The U.S.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also cited intelligence reports
indicating that terrorist groups continue to attempt to smuggle onto planes
explosive devices in a variety of consumer items.
Noting the different countries to which the U.K. and U.S.
directives apply is instructive. Most significantly, perhaps, only the U.S.
electronics ban applies to airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, the hubs of
the major worldwide carriers Emirates, Etihad and Qatar, respectively. No U.S.
airline flies from any of the countries designated in the U.S. prohibition.
Analysts last week poked holes in the prohibition and
questioned if it would, in fact, make airplanes safer.
"Yes, bombs in laptops are a threat, but this assumes
the laptop has to be manually detonated or placed, while a timer can work just
as well in the cargo hold," Nicholas Weaver, a researcher at the
International Computer Science Institute at the University of
California-Berkeley wrote in an email. "At the same time, by only
targeting a few source airports but not transit, this assumes that said
suicidal terrorist is willing to blow up a plane but is unwilling to transfer
through Frankfurt."
Indeed, one potential problem with the prohibition is that
aside from the U.K., major European transatlantic connecting countries such as
Germany, France and the Netherlands have not adopted it.
In an email last week, DHS spokesman David Lapan said that
each country makes decisions based upon a variety of factors, including
political, economic, diplomatic and security considerations.
"As far as overall aviation security, we employ a
system of measures, both seen and unseen, to protect the traveling public,"
Lapan said.
Another matter that has raised the ire of some analysts is
the prohibitions' exception for cellphones.
The DHS said it made that decision to balance security risks
with impact to the traveling public. But Ken Button, a transportation policy
professor at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government,
called the specifics of the prohibition "ridiculous."
"I don't know the difference between an iPhone and an
iPad," he said. "From what I know about explosives, you don't need a
large amount to blow in the side of an aluminum plane."
In fact, safety experts warned, the ban will result in
directing into the cargo hold of aircraft more of the lithium ion batteries
that power rechargeable electronic devices such as laptops and have a history
of occasionally bursting into flames.
John Cox, a former US Airways pilot who now runs the
aviation-industry consulting firm Safe Operating Systems, said that having a
greater density of lithium ion batteries in checked bags will raise the fire
hazard in aircraft cargo holds.
Cox said that approximately one in 10 million lithium ion
batteries have a defect that causes them to superheat, rapidly and
spontaneously, to 1,000 degrees, a process known as thermal runaway.
When that happens, flames shoot out from the battery
violently. While that in itself is frightening, the heat from a burning battery
would likely set off a chain reaction in which nearby batteries also superheat.
Lithium ion batteries can also go into thermal runaway in a
delayed response to being dropped or crushed. And some low-cost replacement
batteries have a defect that causes them to superheat in the hours after being
recharged.
Cox said that the key question related to the carry-on ban
is whether it provides more safety in the form of added security than it takes
away due to congregating batteries in the cargo hold.
"So long as we have done a good, thorough risk
analysis, fine," he said, adding, "I haven't seen it." In fact,
he said, the leading lithium ion battery experts to whom he has spoken said
they had not been consulted on the ban.
Travel industry trade groups mainly focused their comments
about the electronics ban on matters related to the message it sends to
travelers, as well as to the inconvenience it will undoubtedly cause.
U.S. Travel and other organizations said they support
necessary security measures, but business travel groups in particular expressed
anxiety about the impact the ban will have on their constituencies.
"Nearly half
(49%) of business travelers prefer to stay connected and get work done while
flying," Global Business Travel Association executive director Michael
McCormick said in a statement last week. "Not allowing them to bring their
devices on the plane cuts productivity, taking away time that they can be
getting business done."