Increasing global protectionism has led IATA to slightly reduce its forecast for airline passenger growth over the next 20 years.
In its annual forecast IATA predicted annual compounded growth in the number of worldwide air passengers of 3.5% through 2037. The result would be a doubling of passenger numbers to 8.2 billion worldwide.
During a teleconference with reporters Wednesday, IATA general secretary Alexandre de Juniac noted that increases in protectionism around the globe has led the organization to reduce its anticipated compounded growth rate by 0.1% since it last conducted an analysis eight months ago.
"It's a small difference, but the difference is essentially due to the consequences of protectionism," he said.
The downtick came during a period when protectionist trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have led to a series of new tariffs between the U.S. and China, and, to a lesser extent, between the U.S. and European Union.
IATA points said the anticipated 3.5% growth rate is based upon existing worldwide trade policies. A pronounced increase in protectionism would reduce the compounded passenger growth rate to 2.4%, the organization predicts. Increased market stimulation, conversely, could increase the 20-year annual growth of air passengers to 5.5%.
Under existing worldwide trade policies, IATA predicts that China will surpass the U.S. as the largest aviation market in the world in the mid-2020s, and that India, which is now the seventh-largest market, will jump all the way to third by 2024.
Between now and 2037, China will gain 1 billion new annual passengers for a total of 1.6 billion per year, while the U.S. will see an increase of 481 million annual passengers for a total of 1.3 billion per year, IATA forecasted.