Travel to Cuba could change the game in the Caribbean

Kurt Weinsheimer

Cuba is now the No. 1 destination for U.S. travelers to the Caribbean. OK, that’s not true. But given the warming relations between the U.S. and Cuba, including easing of travel restrictions, and recent press, it’s not as far-fetched as it seemed six months ago.

Let’s start with the numbers.

We sifted through our 350 million traveler profiles to track recent searches for Cuba worldwide. As our travel search data shows, the White House announcement in December led to a burst of interest in Cuba among U.S. travelers. Since then, Cuba has moved up four places to No. 15 on the list of top 20 most popular destinations in the Caribbean for Americans. That’s not No. 1, but it’s significant, considering no U.S. carriers currently fly direct routes to Cuba. 

As the accompanying “Hot for Havana” infographic illustrates, U.S. consumer interest continues to rise dramatically any time Cuba is in the news. Most recently, searches for Cuba jumped 87% the day after Airbnb announced it will host properties in Cuba. Destination dreaming for Cuba is on the rise.

So with all the interest, why isn’t Cuba making it to the top? For now, other Caribbean islands are not losing significant market share to Cuba, due to a few factors:

1. Travel restrictions are still in place.
2. A perception (and certain reality) persists that the infrastructure is not yet there for travel to Cuba and, once there, for accommodations.
3. Cuba does not yet have the beach paradise cachet of established destinations such as Puerto Rico, Jamaica or the Virgin Islands.

At least two of the three factors limiting travel to Cuba will change relatively quickly. The Obama administration seems to be moving ahead at full speed with the proposed opening of an embassy (although there is Republican resistance in the House of Representatives).

Once a U.S. embassy is in place and a Cuban embassy is established in Washington, D.C., the path toward lifting travel restrictions is clear.

Regarding the perception that travel infrastructure is not yet in place relative to many Caribbean destinations, this is true. Cuba has suffered from trade embargoes and limited infrastructure investment for decades.

But with respect to lodging, we tend to forget that Cuba has been under embargo by the U.S. but not by the rest of the world. There’s a healthy stream of tourism from Canada, Europe and the rest of Latin America. Major European hotel chains such as Accor, Barcelo and Melia are firmly rooted in the market, and major U.S. chains such as Marriott have announced plans to enter Cuba in the near future.

In short, a solid foundation is in place, and momentum is building for a significant supply increase over the coming years.

From a transportation standpoint, there are many things to consider.

On a global basis, Jose Marti Airport welcomes more than 25 carriers, which in total bring about 4 million passengers to the island each year. U.S. airlines have limited-to-no presence in Cuba, but many of these airlines are making inroads toward establishing charter flights to Havana.

Similarly, as an island nation with three large ports and dozens of smaller ones, Cuba is well suited to welcome an influx of cruise ships on a relatively short time line and with minimal infrastructure investment.

The question is: Will pent-up demand transform Cuba into a top Caribbean destination once sufficient travel infrastructure is in place? Or will the desire for the “forbidden island” wane before things come together? Only time will tell, so we’ll keep our eye on the numbers.